Japan : The Toothless Tiger by Declan Hayes (Tuttle)

Currently, with the weakness of the yen against the dollar and with North Korea continuing to test their missiles over Japanese terrain, Japan’s future is looking pretty bleak. Back at the beginning of the 21st century, author Declan Hayes had already made a number of predictions about Japan’s future. I decided to read his book Japan : The Toothless Tiger, which was originally published in 2001 to see if any of his predictions had come to fruition. 

Now that it is already 2024, you would think a lot of the material would be dated but what he said back in 2001 may still hold true today. “There is a specter haunting Japan and Asia: the specter of Chinese communism”. Hayes mentons two main points concerning his argument. “The overt, military one that her vast defense forces pose and the covert diplomatic one undermining America’s key alliance with Japan”. 

Hayes argues that it is in Japan’s best interest to rearm itself in order to defend its territories. While in theory, it may sound reasonable but it goes against the principles of Japan’s constitution. Throughout the book, Hayes says that Japan needs to build up its military. He argues under the assumption that the U.S. 7th Fleet which is headquartered in Yokosuka, Japan, will eventually sail home to Hawaii and without the protection of the U.S. Japan would easily fall into the hands of China. However, his assumption is not supported by any facts.

China has always been a threat to Asia and the world at large. Hayes says once the 7th Fleet leaves the vicinity, “China will eventually incorporate Taiwan and the islands of the South China Sea into her vast kingdom”. He further argues, “China’s resulting hegemony will put severe strain on the weakest link in America’s Asia defense strategy - Japan, the toothless tiger”. 

Hayes claims that because Japan has become a “toothless tiger”, North Korea often tests its missiles which enter Japanese terrirtory and China’s navy often enters Japan’s waters without compunction and because Japan is a toothless tiger that country can only “toothlessly grin and bear it and hope that things do not get worse”. 

Hayes' main focus seems to be the threat of China but he says it isn’t only China that Japan needs to be wary of. Japan must also build better relations with its neighbor South Korea. Japan’s history of military abuse in both China and South Korea cannot be forgotten or forgiven. Hayes also mentions that until the current government of Japan officially recognizes its crimes committed during the second world war, the relationship between the nations will continue to stand on thin ice. 

His suggestion is a very slippery slope. Although it was the Occupied Forces that wrote up the Japanese constituion, it emphatically states that Japan renounces war and will not build up its military might so that it would repeat history. Japan is the only country in the world to be attacked by two atomic bombs and the country saw what devestation it could cause, not to mention its after effects of the radiation fallout. 

It is now 2024 and the U.S. Fleet has not retired to Hawaii. Japan has also renewed its alliance with the U.S. that will continue to protect Japan and Asia and will also curb the threat that China poses. The U.S. government has also officially announced to China that if it tries to take Taiwan by force, the U.S. will protect Taiwan and will attack China in its defense.

The threat of a world dominating China continues, as does the threat of North Korea. However, to insist that Japan rearm itself and build up its military goes against everything the Japanese government stands for. As long as relations between Japan and the U.S. continue, Japan will continue to be a toothless tiger but one that has power and assertive ally on its side. ~Ernie Hoyt